YouTuber Berges Productions just dropped a 16-minute video claiming he cracked “the NFL script.” After studying the last 20 Super Bowl winners, he boiled it down to eight rules. Apply them to the 2026 season and 31 teams get eliminated. One remains: the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The video, titled I know who is going to win the Super Bowl, went up September 6. Berges frames it as a test. If the eventual Super Bowl 61 champion (Feb. 14, 2027, at SoFi Stadium) breaks any of the rules, the whole theory is dead. If the Steelers win, he cracked the code.

Here’s the formula he used.

The Eight Rules

1. No Shot
Some teams simply have no realistic path. Poor roster, brutal schedule, or both. Cardinals, Dolphins, Browns, Jets, Raiders, and Titans are out immediately.

2. Can’t Be Trash
Champions almost never come from a previous-year losing record. Anyone who finished 6-11 or worse last season is gone: Giants, Commanders, Bengals, Chiefs, Saints, and others.

3. Top 15
The team must have ranked in the top 15 in scoring offense or scoring defense the year before. Falcons and Buccaneers fail this cut.

4. 23+ Turnovers
Seventy percent of the last 20 champions forced at least 23 turnovers the prior season. That single filter knocks out a huge group: Eagles, Vikings, Panthers, Bills, Ravens, Lions, Patriots, Colts, 49ers, Broncos, Cowboys, Packers.

5. Elite Coaching
The head coach has to be historically elite, not just “good.” Houston’s DeMeco Ryans doesn’t clear the bar.

6. Elite Quarterback Play
You need an elite QB. There are rare exceptions (Flacco, late-career Manning, Foles), but Berges says Sam Darnold does not qualify, so the defending champion Seahawks are out.

7. Super Bowl DNA
Teams that have never won a Super Bowl are eliminated. Jaguars, Chargers, and Bears don’t have the pedigree.

8. Not the Preseason Favorite
Heavy favorites rarely win. The Rams, sitting as one of the early favorites, get the last cut.

Last Team Standing

After eight filters, only the Steelers remain.

  • They are not a “no-shot” team.
  • They were not trash last year.
  • They hit the top-15 offense or defense mark.
  • They forced enough turnovers.
  • They have a Hall of Fame quarterback (Aaron Rodgers) and Super Bowl-winning coaching DNA.
  • They have two Super Bowl wins in the last 20 years.
  • They are not the preseason favorite (currently around +5500).

Berges’ closer: forget the long odds, forget the “Rodgers is 42” talk, forget the media narrative. If the last 20 years mean anything, Pittsburgh lifts the Lombardi in February. He even says he’s betting on it.

How Seriously Should You Take This?

This is entertainment first. Berges is a popular NFL content creator who mixes stats, highlight packages, and confident narration. The “script” is pattern-matching with some cherry-picking and a few flexible exceptions. Real football has injuries, coaching changes, and variance that no eight-rule checklist can fully capture.

That said, the format works. It is specific enough to be falsifiable. In five months we’ll know if the Steelers actually survived every filter or if the whole thing was just a fun September video.

Until then, Steelers fans have a new piece of content to send in the group chat. Everyone else has a target to root against.

Watch the full video here: